0xc2ad…40ed

Summary

Strategy

Rests bids on both Up and Down and holds to settlement, locking a pair for about 0.91 per $1 on 1h (0.99 across all timeframes); BTC 5m/15m/1h/4h/1d, 78% maker dollars; +$69,287 over 60 active days and 7222 settled windows.

Why this label

• 78% of dollars are maker fills and 100% of shares are held to settlement (no selling)
• buys both Up and Down in 62% of windows; 51% of paired shares sit in windows whose pair costs under 0.995
• pair cost by timeframe: 5m 1.012, 15m 1.011, 1h 0.913, 4h 0.997, 1d 0.907 (overall 0.990; below 1.00 = locked margin)
• 8.7 fills per window (few clips = leg-in style, second leg bought cheap)

Daily P&L

P&L per calendar day and the running total.

Daily P&L

Cumulative P&L

Rebates

What the wallet earned from the maker and taker rebate programmes.

Rebates per day (fill day)

Rebates are whole-wallet payments (maker, taker and reward programmes): not split by market, they may include non-BTC markets. They are paid the day after the fills, so each payment is shown on the fill day. Per window is approximate.

By timeframe

Trading style

Pair cost is the average price paid for one Up plus one Down share. Below $1.00 the pair pays $1.00 at settlement, so the gap is locked margin before fees.

Timing

Window phase is how far into the market's window the fill happened: pre-open is before the window starts, 0-10% is the first tenth, 90-100% the last tenth.

Fills by hour of day (IST)

Price buckets

Win rate against what the price implied.

actual win rate implied probability (price paid)

A bar above its white tick means the wallet won more often than the price it paid implied; below means less.

Edge

Markout is how the price moved after the fill: positive means the wallet bought and the price then rose (or sold and it fell). Excess win rate is actual minus implied; z vs fair measures how many standard errors that gap is.

Speed

Taker fills only (8358 fills, 22% of dollars); event = Binance 10 s move of at least 2 sigma (per-day sigma); delay = seconds to the wallet's first taker fill in a market within 30 s; 2070 event-market pairs. Block time is 2 s, so delays under 2 s are not resolvable.

Linked wallets

• 0xb4cd4d6fe596f360137e5a0441fecc4e1ec9c041
  similarity 33% no X-ray yet Polymarket profile
  10184 of this wallet's 43160 fill slots (same block, window, outcome, side) are shared; 2062 shared windows
• 0x32ed2e546b187ca15e2841edc82b22c713cf8ec3
  similarity 31% no X-ray yet Polymarket profile
  16591 of this wallet's 43160 fill slots (same block, window, outcome, side) are shared; 4584 shared windows
• 0x3725d52f3c252e8374999cc8617292ea2608ad88
  similarity 29% X-ray page Polymarket profile
  15052 of this wallet's 43160 fill slots (same block, window, outcome, side) are shared; 4394 shared windows

Top markets

Example trades

Caveats

• Markouts compare each fill with the share-weighted price of other traders' taker prints in the same market within +-3 s of the horizon (87% of resolved fills had one at 30 s). This is a print-based reference, not a book mid, so it is noisy by about the spread. pnl_split: spread_capture = 30 s markout x shares; prediction = the rest of P&L (hold from +30 s to settlement, minus fees).
• Other markets (not BTC up/down): 815 of the 3000 most recent data-api trades (back to 2026-10-10 IST); this is a recent-activity sample, not a P&L. Top slug families: eth-updown-5m (363), ethereum-up-or-down-on-october (117), eth-updown-15m (95), solana-up-or-down-on-october (41).
• Rebates are whole-wallet payments from data-api /activity (MAKER_REBATE, TAKER_REBATE, REWARD): they are NOT split by market, so they may include non-BTC markets and fills outside the on-chain BTC windows. They are paid the day after the fills, so each payment is attributed to day = payment time minus 24 h (UTC) and only days inside the covered BTC period are counted. Rebates per window is approximate (rebates divided by settled BTC windows). P&L above excludes rebates; pnl_incl_rebates adds them, or, when flag_outside_btc is set (more than 20% of the rebates cannot come from these BTC fills: taker rebates are capped at BTC taker fees, maker rebates at the maker fee-equivalent, rewards are not attributable), only the capped BTC-attributable amount (an upper bound).
• On-chain coverage: BTC up/down 15m/1h/4h/1d from Aug 19 to Oct 19 2026 and 5m only Oct 10-19; windows ending after Oct 19 and anything earlier are missing, so totals are for the covered period only.
• P&L = settlement at the Gamma winner minus cost, fees included (fees are separate in the chain rows), per window; only fills are visible: no quotes, cancels, merges/splits or off-platform hedges, so true account P&L can differ.
• Days are UTC dates of the window end (same convention as the leaderboard). pnl_per_day is per active day; max_drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough fall of cumulative daily P&L (positive number).
• Price buckets, win rates and implied win rates are per share: bucket = price paid per $1 payout (for a sell, 1 - price); win_rate and implied are share-weighted. z_fair groups fills into one bet per window, outcome and direction, so correlated fills are not counted as independent.
• Linked wallets are a timing heuristic (same block, window, outcome and side as this wallet); strong overlap suggests one operator or a copied bot but is not proof.
• 107 fills (0.2%) happened after the window end (bucket 'post-end', extra bucket in the phase histogram).