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0x943c…77c2

0x943cea746e701823b6902a6f4eaeed58207e77c2
Polymarket profile
momentum takerlow confidence
+$21,579
total P&L over 49 days
$ per day+$440
$ per window+$20.59
Edge z2.17
Maker share0%
Rebates +$838 total · +$17/day · 3.9% of P&L · P&L incl. rebates +$22,417
Generated 2026-10-20 21:28 IST
Coverage and data sources
2026-08-24 → 2026-10-19 · 14,243 trades · 1,048 markets
btc_5m 1,391btc_15m 12,852other 638
Data sources
  • onchain BTC up/down 15m/1h/4h/1d Aug 19-Oct 19 2026 (bots2000 chain rows, maker+taker)
  • onchain BTC up/down 5m Oct 10-19 2026 (tf_leaderboard rows)
  • Gamma winners from the local market tables
  • Binance BTCUSDT 1s klines (reaction speed only)
  • data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user= (6 page(s), 3000 most recent trades) for non-BTC coverage only
  • data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user=&type=MAKER_REBATE|TAKER_REBATE|REWARD (72 payments)
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SummaryStrategyDailyRebatesTimeframesStyleTimingPricesEdgeSpeedLinkedMarketsTradesCaveats

Summary

P&L total
+$21,579
on $178,935 traded
P&L per day
+$440
P&L per window
+$20.59
Return on spent
+12.62%
Days positive
30 / 49
61% of days
Best day
+$7,857
Worst day
−$1,834
Max drawdown
−$2,103
Fees paid
$5,309

Strategy

Takes liquidity, mostly with the move; BTC 5m/15m, 0% maker dollars; +$21,579 over 49 active days and 1048 settled windows.

momentum takerclosest bot family: T3 · Strike-cross momentumlow confidencesummary confidence: high

Why this label

Daily P&L

P&L per calendar day and the running total.

Daily P&L

$7.9k0−$1.8k2026-08-24: −$115 · volume $109 · 1 windows2026-08-26: −$10 · volume $77 · 5 windows2026-08-27: −$33 · volume $45 · 3 windows2026-08-29: +$3.05 · volume $7.79 · 1 windows2026-08-30: +$47 · volume $866 · 10 windows2026-08-31: +$309 · volume $3,288 · 18 windows2026-09-06: +$484 · volume $2,854 · 14 windows2026-09-08: −$3.02 · volume $13 · 3 windows2026-09-09: +$628 · volume $2,625 · 9 windows2026-09-10: +$1,059 · volume $5,546 · 11 windows2026-09-11: +$116 · volume $3,928 · 14 windows2026-09-12: −$654 · volume $5,048 · 34 windows2026-09-13: +$60 · volume $1,444 · 34 windows2026-09-14: −$137 · volume $1,073 · 17 windows2026-09-15: +$36 · volume $209 · 15 windows2026-09-16: −$14 · volume $117 · 8 windows2026-09-17: −$16 · volume $108 · 6 windows2026-09-18: +$877 · volume $946 · 20 windows2026-09-19: +$89 · volume $634 · 16 windows2026-09-20: +$30 · volume $119 · 5 windows2026-09-21: −$22 · volume $70 · 6 windows2026-09-22: +$368 · volume $874 · 20 windows2026-09-23: +$46 · volume $632 · 13 windows2026-09-24: +$300 · volume $834 · 6 windows2026-09-25: +$550 · volume $417 · 12 windows2026-09-26: +$908 · volume $12,410 · 40 windows2026-09-27: +$2,835 · volume $17,220 · 38 windows2026-09-28: +$67 · volume $237 · 5 windows2026-09-29: +$172 · volume $199 · 8 windows2026-09-30: +$340 · volume $646 · 7 windows2026-10-01: +$445 · volume $1,379 · 15 windows2026-10-02: +$1,723 · volume $2,359 · 28 windows2026-10-03: −$140 · volume $11,926 · 36 windows2026-10-04: +$234 · volume $2,984 · 19 windows2026-10-05: −$1,464 · volume $3,077 · 14 windows2026-10-06: +$1,836 · volume $1,976 · 22 windows2026-10-07: −$406 · volume $1,763 · 9 windows2026-10-08: −$299 · volume $2,381 · 22 windows2026-10-09: +$1,737 · volume $7,247 · 23 windows2026-10-10: −$949 · volume $8,419 · 33 windows2026-10-11: +$3,708 · volume $25,874 · 102 windows2026-10-12: −$563 · volume $2,295 · 15 windows2026-10-13: −$76 · volume $1,609 · 25 windows2026-10-14: +$370 · volume $1,651 · 16 windows2026-10-15: −$1,834 · volume $3,183 · 20 windows2026-10-16: +$1,498 · volume $10,618 · 55 windows2026-10-17: +$7,857 · volume $21,841 · 100 windows2026-10-18: −$167 · volume $3,773 · 77 windows2026-10-19: −$251 · volume $1,984 · 18 windows08-2409-1309-2510-0710-19
$7.9k0−$1.8k2026-08-24: −$115 · volume $109 · 1 windows2026-08-26: −$10 · volume $77 · 5 windows2026-08-27: −$33 · volume $45 · 3 windows2026-08-29: +$3.05 · volume $7.79 · 1 windows2026-08-30: +$47 · volume $866 · 10 windows2026-08-31: +$309 · volume $3,288 · 18 windows2026-09-06: +$484 · volume $2,854 · 14 windows2026-09-08: −$3.02 · volume $13 · 3 windows2026-09-09: +$628 · volume $2,625 · 9 windows2026-09-10: +$1,059 · volume $5,546 · 11 windows2026-09-11: +$116 · volume $3,928 · 14 windows2026-09-12: −$654 · volume $5,048 · 34 windows2026-09-13: +$60 · volume $1,444 · 34 windows2026-09-14: −$137 · volume $1,073 · 17 windows2026-09-15: +$36 · volume $209 · 15 windows2026-09-16: −$14 · volume $117 · 8 windows2026-09-17: −$16 · volume $108 · 6 windows2026-09-18: +$877 · volume $946 · 20 windows2026-09-19: +$89 · volume $634 · 16 windows2026-09-20: +$30 · volume $119 · 5 windows2026-09-21: −$22 · volume $70 · 6 windows2026-09-22: +$368 · volume $874 · 20 windows2026-09-23: +$46 · volume $632 · 13 windows2026-09-24: +$300 · volume $834 · 6 windows2026-09-25: +$550 · volume $417 · 12 windows2026-09-26: +$908 · volume $12,410 · 40 windows2026-09-27: +$2,835 · volume $17,220 · 38 windows2026-09-28: +$67 · volume $237 · 5 windows2026-09-29: +$172 · volume $199 · 8 windows2026-09-30: +$340 · volume $646 · 7 windows2026-10-01: +$445 · volume $1,379 · 15 windows2026-10-02: +$1,723 · volume $2,359 · 28 windows2026-10-03: −$140 · volume $11,926 · 36 windows2026-10-04: +$234 · volume $2,984 · 19 windows2026-10-05: −$1,464 · volume $3,077 · 14 windows2026-10-06: +$1,836 · volume $1,976 · 22 windows2026-10-07: −$406 · volume $1,763 · 9 windows2026-10-08: −$299 · volume $2,381 · 22 windows2026-10-09: +$1,737 · volume $7,247 · 23 windows2026-10-10: −$949 · volume $8,419 · 33 windows2026-10-11: +$3,708 · volume $25,874 · 102 windows2026-10-12: −$563 · volume $2,295 · 15 windows2026-10-13: −$76 · volume $1,609 · 25 windows2026-10-14: +$370 · volume $1,651 · 16 windows2026-10-15: −$1,834 · volume $3,183 · 20 windows2026-10-16: +$1,498 · volume $10,618 · 55 windows2026-10-17: +$7,857 · volume $21,841 · 100 windows2026-10-18: −$167 · volume $3,773 · 77 windows2026-10-19: −$251 · volume $1,984 · 18 windows08-2409-1309-2510-0710-19
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Cumulative P&L

$22k0−$1582026-08-24: cumulative −$1152026-08-26: cumulative −$1252026-08-27: cumulative −$1582026-08-29: cumulative −$1552026-08-30: cumulative −$1082026-08-31: cumulative +$2002026-09-06: cumulative +$6842026-09-08: cumulative +$6812026-09-09: cumulative +$1,3092026-09-10: cumulative +$2,3682026-09-11: cumulative +$2,4832026-09-12: cumulative +$1,8302026-09-13: cumulative +$1,8902026-09-14: cumulative +$1,7532026-09-15: cumulative +$1,7892026-09-16: cumulative +$1,7752026-09-17: cumulative +$1,7592026-09-18: cumulative +$2,6362026-09-19: cumulative +$2,7262026-09-20: cumulative +$2,7562026-09-21: cumulative +$2,7342026-09-22: cumulative +$3,1022026-09-23: cumulative +$3,1482026-09-24: cumulative +$3,4472026-09-25: cumulative +$3,9972026-09-26: cumulative +$4,9052026-09-27: cumulative +$7,7402026-09-28: cumulative +$7,8072026-09-29: cumulative +$7,9802026-09-30: cumulative +$8,3192026-10-01: cumulative +$8,7652026-10-02: cumulative +$10,4882026-10-03: cumulative +$10,3472026-10-04: cumulative +$10,5812026-10-05: cumulative +$9,1172026-10-06: cumulative +$10,9532026-10-07: cumulative +$10,5472026-10-08: cumulative +$10,2482026-10-09: cumulative +$11,9852026-10-10: cumulative +$11,0362026-10-11: cumulative +$14,7442026-10-12: cumulative +$14,1812026-10-13: cumulative +$14,1052026-10-14: cumulative +$14,4752026-10-15: cumulative +$12,6422026-10-16: cumulative +$14,1402026-10-17: cumulative +$21,9972026-10-18: cumulative +$21,8302026-10-19: cumulative +$21,57908-2409-1309-2510-0710-19
$22k0−$1582026-08-24: cumulative −$1152026-08-26: cumulative −$1252026-08-27: cumulative −$1582026-08-29: cumulative −$1552026-08-30: cumulative −$1082026-08-31: cumulative +$2002026-09-06: cumulative +$6842026-09-08: cumulative +$6812026-09-09: cumulative +$1,3092026-09-10: cumulative +$2,3682026-09-11: cumulative +$2,4832026-09-12: cumulative +$1,8302026-09-13: cumulative +$1,8902026-09-14: cumulative +$1,7532026-09-15: cumulative +$1,7892026-09-16: cumulative +$1,7752026-09-17: cumulative +$1,7592026-09-18: cumulative +$2,6362026-09-19: cumulative +$2,7262026-09-20: cumulative +$2,7562026-09-21: cumulative +$2,7342026-09-22: cumulative +$3,1022026-09-23: cumulative +$3,1482026-09-24: cumulative +$3,4472026-09-25: cumulative +$3,9972026-09-26: cumulative +$4,9052026-09-27: cumulative +$7,7402026-09-28: cumulative +$7,8072026-09-29: cumulative +$7,9802026-09-30: cumulative +$8,3192026-10-01: cumulative +$8,7652026-10-02: cumulative +$10,4882026-10-03: cumulative +$10,3472026-10-04: cumulative +$10,5812026-10-05: cumulative +$9,1172026-10-06: cumulative +$10,9532026-10-07: cumulative +$10,5472026-10-08: cumulative +$10,2482026-10-09: cumulative +$11,9852026-10-10: cumulative +$11,0362026-10-11: cumulative +$14,7442026-10-12: cumulative +$14,1812026-10-13: cumulative +$14,1052026-10-14: cumulative +$14,4752026-10-15: cumulative +$12,6422026-10-16: cumulative +$14,1402026-10-17: cumulative +$21,9972026-10-18: cumulative +$21,8302026-10-19: cumulative +$21,57908-2409-1309-2510-0710-19
Final total +$21,579. Tap or hover the line for the running total.

Rebates

What the wallet earned from the maker and taker rebate programmes.

Total rebates
+$838
maker $0.00 · taker +$838 · rewards $0.00
Rebates per day
+$17
per active day
Rebates per window
+$0.799
approximate
Share of P&L
+3.9%
rebates ÷ P&L (excl. rebates)
Maker rebate / maker $
0.00%
of maker dollars traded
P&L incl. rebates
+$22,417
P&L plus total rebates

Rebates per day (fill day)

$27302026-08-31 (fill day): +$2.57 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.57, rewards $0.00)2026-09-06 (fill day): +$1.72 (maker $0.00, taker +$1.72, rewards $0.00)2026-09-09 (fill day): +$2.56 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.56, rewards $0.00)2026-09-10 (fill day): +$3.81 (maker $0.00, taker +$3.81, rewards $0.00)2026-09-11 (fill day): +$2.84 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.84, rewards $0.00)2026-09-12 (fill day): +$18 (maker $0.00, taker +$18, rewards $0.00)2026-09-13 (fill day): +$5.39 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.39, rewards $0.00)2026-09-14 (fill day): +$2.78 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.78, rewards $0.00)2026-09-18 (fill day): +$5.62 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.62, rewards $0.00)2026-09-19 (fill day): +$4.17 (maker $0.00, taker +$4.17, rewards $0.00)2026-09-22 (fill day): +$3.09 (maker $0.00, taker +$3.09, rewards $0.00)2026-09-23 (fill day): +$1.88 (maker $0.00, taker +$1.88, rewards $0.00)2026-09-24 (fill day): +$7.57 (maker $0.00, taker +$7.57, rewards $0.00)2026-09-25 (fill day): +$2.80 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.80, rewards $0.00)2026-09-26 (fill day): +$35 (maker $0.00, taker +$35, rewards $0.00)2026-09-27 (fill day): +$41 (maker $0.00, taker +$41, rewards $0.00)2026-09-28 (fill day): +$1.93 (maker $0.00, taker +$1.93, rewards $0.00)2026-09-29 (fill day): +$20 (maker $0.00, taker +$20, rewards $0.00)2026-09-30 (fill day): +$9.20 (maker $0.00, taker +$9.20, rewards $0.00)2026-10-01 (fill day): +$5.69 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.69, rewards $0.00)2026-10-02 (fill day): +$19 (maker $0.00, taker +$19, rewards $0.00)2026-10-03 (fill day): +$33 (maker $0.00, taker +$33, rewards $0.00)2026-10-04 (fill day): +$45 (maker $0.00, taker +$45, rewards $0.00)2026-10-05 (fill day): +$44 (maker $0.00, taker +$44, rewards $0.00)2026-10-06 (fill day): +$6.93 (maker $0.00, taker +$6.93, rewards $0.00)2026-10-07 (fill day): +$5.46 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.46, rewards $0.00)2026-10-08 (fill day): +$7.50 (maker $0.00, taker +$7.50, rewards $0.00)2026-10-09 (fill day): +$22 (maker $0.00, taker +$22, rewards $0.00)2026-10-10 (fill day): +$28 (maker $0.00, taker +$28, rewards $0.00)2026-10-11 (fill day): +$54 (maker $0.00, taker +$54, rewards $0.00)2026-10-12 (fill day): +$7.03 (maker $0.00, taker +$7.03, rewards $0.00)2026-10-13 (fill day): +$6.07 (maker $0.00, taker +$6.07, rewards $0.00)2026-10-14 (fill day): +$4.46 (maker $0.00, taker +$4.46, rewards $0.00)2026-10-15 (fill day): +$9.67 (maker $0.00, taker +$9.67, rewards $0.00)2026-10-16 (fill day): +$28 (maker $0.00, taker +$28, rewards $0.00)2026-10-17 (fill day): +$51 (maker $0.00, taker +$51, rewards $0.00)2026-10-18 (fill day): +$273 (maker $0.00, taker +$273, rewards $0.00)2026-10-19 (fill day): +$17 (maker $0.00, taker +$17, rewards $0.00)08-3109-1909-3010-1010-19
$27302026-08-31 (fill day): +$2.57 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.57, rewards $0.00)2026-09-06 (fill day): +$1.72 (maker $0.00, taker +$1.72, rewards $0.00)2026-09-09 (fill day): +$2.56 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.56, rewards $0.00)2026-09-10 (fill day): +$3.81 (maker $0.00, taker +$3.81, rewards $0.00)2026-09-11 (fill day): +$2.84 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.84, rewards $0.00)2026-09-12 (fill day): +$18 (maker $0.00, taker +$18, rewards $0.00)2026-09-13 (fill day): +$5.39 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.39, rewards $0.00)2026-09-14 (fill day): +$2.78 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.78, rewards $0.00)2026-09-18 (fill day): +$5.62 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.62, rewards $0.00)2026-09-19 (fill day): +$4.17 (maker $0.00, taker +$4.17, rewards $0.00)2026-09-22 (fill day): +$3.09 (maker $0.00, taker +$3.09, rewards $0.00)2026-09-23 (fill day): +$1.88 (maker $0.00, taker +$1.88, rewards $0.00)2026-09-24 (fill day): +$7.57 (maker $0.00, taker +$7.57, rewards $0.00)2026-09-25 (fill day): +$2.80 (maker $0.00, taker +$2.80, rewards $0.00)2026-09-26 (fill day): +$35 (maker $0.00, taker +$35, rewards $0.00)2026-09-27 (fill day): +$41 (maker $0.00, taker +$41, rewards $0.00)2026-09-28 (fill day): +$1.93 (maker $0.00, taker +$1.93, rewards $0.00)2026-09-29 (fill day): +$20 (maker $0.00, taker +$20, rewards $0.00)2026-09-30 (fill day): +$9.20 (maker $0.00, taker +$9.20, rewards $0.00)2026-10-01 (fill day): +$5.69 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.69, rewards $0.00)2026-10-02 (fill day): +$19 (maker $0.00, taker +$19, rewards $0.00)2026-10-03 (fill day): +$33 (maker $0.00, taker +$33, rewards $0.00)2026-10-04 (fill day): +$45 (maker $0.00, taker +$45, rewards $0.00)2026-10-05 (fill day): +$44 (maker $0.00, taker +$44, rewards $0.00)2026-10-06 (fill day): +$6.93 (maker $0.00, taker +$6.93, rewards $0.00)2026-10-07 (fill day): +$5.46 (maker $0.00, taker +$5.46, rewards $0.00)2026-10-08 (fill day): +$7.50 (maker $0.00, taker +$7.50, rewards $0.00)2026-10-09 (fill day): +$22 (maker $0.00, taker +$22, rewards $0.00)2026-10-10 (fill day): +$28 (maker $0.00, taker +$28, rewards $0.00)2026-10-11 (fill day): +$54 (maker $0.00, taker +$54, rewards $0.00)2026-10-12 (fill day): +$7.03 (maker $0.00, taker +$7.03, rewards $0.00)2026-10-13 (fill day): +$6.07 (maker $0.00, taker +$6.07, rewards $0.00)2026-10-14 (fill day): +$4.46 (maker $0.00, taker +$4.46, rewards $0.00)2026-10-15 (fill day): +$9.67 (maker $0.00, taker +$9.67, rewards $0.00)2026-10-16 (fill day): +$28 (maker $0.00, taker +$28, rewards $0.00)2026-10-17 (fill day): +$51 (maker $0.00, taker +$51, rewards $0.00)2026-10-18 (fill day): +$273 (maker $0.00, taker +$273, rewards $0.00)2026-10-19 (fill day): +$17 (maker $0.00, taker +$17, rewards $0.00)08-3109-1909-3010-1010-19
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Rebates are whole-wallet payments (maker, taker and reward programmes): not split by market, they may include non-BTC markets. They are paid the day after the fills, so each payment is shown on the fill day. Per window is approximate.

By timeframe

TimeframeWindowsP&LP&L / windowVolumeMaker shareWin rate
5m272−$2,288−$8.41$20,2610%45.6%
15m776+$23,867+$30.76$158,6750%51.5%

Trading style

Maker (resting)0%
Taker (crossing)100%
Both sides36%
Hold to settle96%
Avg pair cost
$0.898
locks about 10.2c per pair
Fills / window
13.6
$ / window
$171
Median fill
$4.77

Pair cost is the average price paid for one Up plus one Down share. Below $1.00 the pair pays $1.00 at settlement, so the gap is locked margin before fees.

Timing

Fills by window phase

pre-open313pre-open: 313 fills · P&L +$1700-10%7930-10%: 793 fills · P&L +$1,86710-20%93510-20%: 935 fills · P&L +$44620-30%1,01720-30%: 1,017 fills · P&L +$1,07730-40%1,02330-40%: 1,023 fills · P&L +$20340-50%1,17540-50%: 1,175 fills · P&L −$1,33450-60%1,12550-60%: 1,125 fills · P&L +$1,03860-70%1,47060-70%: 1,470 fills · P&L +$3,27170-80%1,98270-80%: 1,982 fills · P&L +$5,31380-90%2,40480-90%: 2,404 fills · P&L +$7,22290-100%1,98990-100%: 1,989 fills · P&L +$2,331post-end17post-end: 17 fills · P&L −$25
pre-open313pre-open: 313 fills · P&L +$1700-10%7930-10%: 793 fills · P&L +$1,86710-20%93510-20%: 935 fills · P&L +$44620-30%1,01720-30%: 1,017 fills · P&L +$1,07730-40%1,02330-40%: 1,023 fills · P&L +$20340-50%1,17540-50%: 1,175 fills · P&L −$1,33450-60%1,12550-60%: 1,125 fills · P&L +$1,03860-70%1,47060-70%: 1,470 fills · P&L +$3,27170-80%1,98270-80%: 1,982 fills · P&L +$5,31380-90%2,40480-90%: 2,404 fills · P&L +$7,22290-100%1,98990-100%: 1,989 fills · P&L +$2,331post-end17post-end: 17 fills · P&L −$25
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P&L by window phase

pre-open$170pre-open: P&L +$170 · 313 fills0-10%$1.9k0-10%: P&L +$1,867 · 793 fills10-20%$44610-20%: P&L +$446 · 935 fills20-30%$1.1k20-30%: P&L +$1,077 · 1,017 fills30-40%$20330-40%: P&L +$203 · 1,023 fills40-50%−$1.3k40-50%: P&L −$1,334 · 1,175 fills50-60%$1k50-60%: P&L +$1,038 · 1,125 fills60-70%$3.3k60-70%: P&L +$3,271 · 1,470 fills70-80%$5.3k70-80%: P&L +$5,313 · 1,982 fills80-90%$7.2k80-90%: P&L +$7,222 · 2,404 fills90-100%$2.3k90-100%: P&L +$2,331 · 1,989 fillspost-end−$25post-end: P&L −$25 · 17 fills
pre-open$170pre-open: P&L +$170 · 313 fills0-10%$1.9k0-10%: P&L +$1,867 · 793 fills10-20%$44610-20%: P&L +$446 · 935 fills20-30%$1.1k20-30%: P&L +$1,077 · 1,017 fills30-40%$20330-40%: P&L +$203 · 1,023 fills40-50%−$1.3k40-50%: P&L −$1,334 · 1,175 fills50-60%$1k50-60%: P&L +$1,038 · 1,125 fills60-70%$3.3k60-70%: P&L +$3,271 · 1,470 fills70-80%$5.3k70-80%: P&L +$5,313 · 1,982 fills80-90%$7.2k80-90%: P&L +$7,222 · 2,404 fills90-100%$2.3k90-100%: P&L +$2,331 · 1,989 fillspost-end−$25post-end: P&L −$25 · 17 fills
tap or hover a bar for details

Window phase is how far into the market's window the fill happened: pre-open is before the window starts, 0-10% is the first tenth, 90-100% the last tenth.

Fills by hour of day (IST)

2.1k000:00-00:59 IST: 648 fills01:00-01:59 IST: 254 fills02:00-02:59 IST: 386 fills03:00-03:59 IST: 536 fills04:00-04:59 IST: 1,781 fills05:00-05:59 IST: 2,084 fills06:00-06:59 IST: 1,156 fills07:00-07:59 IST: 1,171 fills08:00-08:59 IST: 444 fills09:00-09:59 IST: 290 fills10:00-10:59 IST: 466 fills11:00-11:59 IST: 418 fills12:00-12:59 IST: 486 fills13:00-13:59 IST: 285 fills14:00-14:59 IST: 631 fills15:00-15:59 IST: 705 fills16:00-16:59 IST: 276 fills17:00-17:59 IST: 326 fills18:00-18:59 IST: 320 fills19:00-19:59 IST: 387 fills20:00-20:59 IST: 328 fills21:00-21:59 IST: 328 fills22:00-22:59 IST: 220 fills23:00-23:59 IST: 317 fills036912151821
2.1k000:00-00:59 IST: 648 fills01:00-01:59 IST: 254 fills02:00-02:59 IST: 386 fills03:00-03:59 IST: 536 fills04:00-04:59 IST: 1,781 fills05:00-05:59 IST: 2,084 fills06:00-06:59 IST: 1,156 fills07:00-07:59 IST: 1,171 fills08:00-08:59 IST: 444 fills09:00-09:59 IST: 290 fills10:00-10:59 IST: 466 fills11:00-11:59 IST: 418 fills12:00-12:59 IST: 486 fills13:00-13:59 IST: 285 fills14:00-14:59 IST: 631 fills15:00-15:59 IST: 705 fills16:00-16:59 IST: 276 fills17:00-17:59 IST: 326 fills18:00-18:59 IST: 320 fills19:00-19:59 IST: 387 fills20:00-20:59 IST: 328 fills21:00-21:59 IST: 328 fills22:00-22:59 IST: 220 fills23:00-23:59 IST: 317 fills036912151821
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Price buckets

Win rate against what the price implied.

100%50%0%0-10c: win 3.7% vs implied 4.1% · 842 fills · $5,096 traded · P&L −$252010-20c: win 25.4% vs implied 14.8% · 1,136 fills · $5,053 traded · P&L +$3,1221020-30c: win 25.3% vs implied 25.3% · 1,424 fills · $10,280 traded · P&L −$4842030-40c: win 43.8% vs implied 34.9% · 1,941 fills · $16,967 traded · P&L +$3,4843040-50c: win 54.0% vs implied 44.8% · 2,196 fills · $24,649 traded · P&L +$4,1164050-60c: win 64.8% vs implied 54.5% · 3,017 fills · $41,170 traded · P&L +$6,5365060-70c: win 72.9% vs implied 64.4% · 2,068 fills · $35,720 traded · P&L +$3,8286070-80c: win 81.9% vs implied 73.9% · 958 fills · $18,911 traded · P&L +$1,7647080-90c: win 83.9% vs implied 84.6% · 401 fills · $9,708 traded · P&L −$2198090-100c: win 92.5% vs implied 94.4% · 260 fills · $11,383 traded · P&L −$31690price paid, bucket start (cents)
100%50%0%0-10c: win 3.7% vs implied 4.1% · 842 fills · $5,096 traded · P&L −$252010-20c: win 25.4% vs implied 14.8% · 1,136 fills · $5,053 traded · P&L +$3,1221020-30c: win 25.3% vs implied 25.3% · 1,424 fills · $10,280 traded · P&L −$4842030-40c: win 43.8% vs implied 34.9% · 1,941 fills · $16,967 traded · P&L +$3,4843040-50c: win 54.0% vs implied 44.8% · 2,196 fills · $24,649 traded · P&L +$4,1164050-60c: win 64.8% vs implied 54.5% · 3,017 fills · $41,170 traded · P&L +$6,5365060-70c: win 72.9% vs implied 64.4% · 2,068 fills · $35,720 traded · P&L +$3,8286070-80c: win 81.9% vs implied 73.9% · 958 fills · $18,911 traded · P&L +$1,7647080-90c: win 83.9% vs implied 84.6% · 401 fills · $9,708 traded · P&L −$2198090-100c: win 92.5% vs implied 94.4% · 260 fills · $11,383 traded · P&L −$31690price paid, bucket start (cents)
tap or hover a bucket: win rate, implied, fills, P&L

actual win rate implied probability (price paid)

BucketFillsTradedWinImpliedP&L
0-10c842$5,0963.7%4.1%−$252
10-20c1,136$5,05325.4%14.8%+$3,122
20-30c1,424$10,28025.3%25.3%−$484
30-40c1,941$16,96743.8%34.9%+$3,484
40-50c2,196$24,64954.0%44.8%+$4,116
50-60c3,017$41,17064.8%54.5%+$6,536
60-70c2,068$35,72072.9%64.4%+$3,828
70-80c958$18,91181.9%73.9%+$1,764
80-90c401$9,70883.9%84.6%−$219
90-100c260$11,38392.5%94.4%−$316

A bar above its white tick means the wallet won more often than the price it paid implied; below means less.

Edge

Win rate
51.7%
Implied by prices
44.9%
Excess win rate
+6.79 pts
z vs fair
2.17
moderate evidence of edge, needs more data

Markout (cents per share after the fill)

5s+0.21c5s after fill: 0.21 cents per share30s+1.17c30s after fill: 1.17 cents per sharesettle+6.79csettle after fill: 6.79 cents per share
5s+0.21c5s after fill: 0.21 cents per share30s+1.17c30s after fill: 1.17 cents per sharesettle+6.79csettle after fill: 6.79 cents per share
tap a bar for details

Where the P&L comes from

Spread$4.4kSpread capture: +$4,394Prediction$17.2kPrediction: +$17,185
Spread$4.4kSpread capture: +$4,394Prediction$17.2kPrediction: +$17,185

Markout is how the price moved after the fill: positive means the wallet bought and the price then rose (or sold and it fell). Excess win rate is actual minus implied; z vs fair measures how many standard errors that gap is.

Speed

Median reaction to Binance move
7.00 s
Fills within 2 s of a Binance move
2.0%

Taker fills only (14220 fills, 100% of dollars); event = Binance 10 s move of at least 2 sigma (per-day sigma); delay = seconds to the wallet's first taker fill in a market within 30 s; 719 event-market pairs. Block time is 2 s, so delays under 2 s are not resolvable.

Linked wallets

Top markets

MarketTFP&LVolumeFills
btc-updown-15m-179168220015m+$1,437$78131
btc-updown-15m-179219070015m+$1,278$1,38064
btc-updown-15m-179222310015m+$1,225$68527
btc-updown-15m-179226450015m+$1,217$1,16836
btc-updown-15m-179106930015m+$1,070$1,45980
btc-updown-15m-179044560015m+$1,013$1,16072
btc-updown-15m-178900110015m+$981$1,21931
btc-updown-15m-179053380015m+$954$1,69186
btc-updown-15m-179053470015m+$928$1,40273
btc-updown-15m-179226630015m+$917$1,87348

Example trades

Time (IST)MarketTradePriceSizeUSDRolePhaseResult
2026-09-11 09:14:18 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1789097400BUY Up98.9c752.6$744taker95%won
2026-09-26 12:04:23 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1790404200BUY Up70.0c565.0$395taker29%lost
2026-10-09 05:40:51 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791504000BUY Down27.0c17.0$4.59taker72%lost
2026-10-10 05:14:13 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791588600BUY Down16.0c20.1$3.22taker95%lost
2026-10-11 03:43:24 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791669600BUY Up50.0c1,037.7$519taker89%lost
2026-10-11 05:55:15 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791677700BUY Down88.0c25.0$22taker68%won
2026-10-11 07:07:44 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791682200BUY Down15.0c682.0$102taker52%won
2026-10-11 07:09:33 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791682200BUY Down10.0c900.0$90taker64%won
2026-10-11 19:10:01 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1791725400BUY Down18.0c612.5$110taker67%won
2026-10-16 02:06:17 ISTbtc-updown-5m-1792096500BUY Down72.0c613.8$442taker26%lost
2026-10-16 02:07:35 ISTbtc-updown-5m-1792096500BUY Down71.0c5.0$3.55taker52%lost
2026-10-16 06:06:34 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792110600BUY Down60.0c5.2$3.12taker44%lost
2026-10-17 04:46:26 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792192500BUY Down63.0c2,118.6$1,335taker10%won
2026-10-17 05:30:30 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792195200BUY Down65.0c626.8$407taker3%lost
2026-10-17 13:28:56 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792223100BUY Up27.0c46.2$12taker93%won
2026-10-17 16:26:15 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792233900BUY Down38.0c773.0$294taker75%won
2026-10-18 01:27:11 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792266300BUY Down70.0c1,433.6$1,003taker81%won
2026-10-18 01:30:36 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792267200BUY Up66.0c915.2$604taker4%won
2026-10-18 02:11:32 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792269000BUY Up55.3c937.2$518taker77%won
2026-10-18 17:45:53 ISTbtc-updown-15m-1792325700BUY Down39.0c26.0$10taker6%won

Caveats

Rendered 2026-10-20 21:45 IST · numbers come straight from report.json; shares are shown as percentages